DTN Midday Grain Comments 01/28 10:53
Grains Mixed at Midday
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 220. The dollar index is 15
points higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are firmer with
crude up $0.40. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are weaker
with gold 8.30 lower.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents higher at midday with short-covering and fresh
export sales adding support to the market. Ethanol margins remain range bound
with the energy complex finding some footing for stability and ethanol futures
edging slightly higher. U.S. weather should be better in the short term. Basis
should remain sideways. The daily wire has been more active the past few days
with the trade looking for further confirmations. On the March contract,
support is the lower Bollinger band at $3.79 and then recent lows at $3.77.
Resistance is the top of the fresh gap at $3.84, which we have filled at
midday, with the 20-day at $3.87 above that.
Soybeans trade is 2 to 3 cents lower. The trade is working to test the lower
end of the range again this morning with support holding so far. Meal is flat
to $1.00 lower, and oil is flat to 10 points lower. The Brazilian real remains
very cheap, as well, hurting U.S. export competitiveness on the world front.
South American weather remains within the recent pattern for soybeans, as well,
with early harvest underway. Basis has remained steady to firmer at processors
with the strong crush margins. The weather is likely starting to allow for
better movement short term. The March chart support is the $8.82 contract low,
with resistance the $9.00 area.
Wheat trade is 2 to 5 cents lower at midday with trade fading a bit.
Range-bound action is continuing after holding up better on Monday. Cold
threats remain limited for the Plains with limited potential for moisture in
the short term. KC is at an 88-cent discount to Chicago near the top of the
recent range, while Minneapolis is back to a 25-cent discount. Russian values
remain elevated with trade looking for confirmation of various milling grades
to China in the short term. The March KC chart support is the lower Bollinger
band at $4.71, and resistance is the 20-day at $4.87.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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